This is a blog about my random rants and a point of discussion for my clients, collegues and anyone in general who is interested in insurance, savings, investments and real estate.

Friday, June 05, 2009

Singapore's own housing bottom?

Recently there has been talk of US having hit their housing bottom and inventories of housing have been dropping. This has spurred some seller in Singapore to think that Singapore has reached it's own housing bottom. Let me point out a fact to these sellers.
To be fair, let's take the mass market housing (ie public housing a.k.a. HDB) as a gauge.
- During the 1997 housing slump the HDB resale price index fell for 9 consecutive quarters. 1st quarter 1997 to 1st quarter 1999
- During the next housing slump which started in year 2000, the HDB resale price index fell for 8 consecutive quarters. 2nd quarter 2000 to 1st quarter 2002

This recession is going to be much tougher than the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We are better equipped to tackle the recession but housing is expected to be weak as people are unsure of their jobs and thus should be staying on the sidelines with regards to purchasing such a big ticket item as a property.

- Our Singapore government has dipped into it's reserves for the first time (not even during the 1997 crisis did it do so)
- Our economy is export driven and thus it's going to be sluggish for a long time

My analysis: Expect 4-8 quarters of falling HDB resale price indexes.

Number of quarters of consecutive drop so far: 1 quarter (1st quarter 2009)

First time buyers (a.k.a the 20-30 something love birds who just have to buy a house to solidify their love for each other): Don't rush in. Why subject yourself to such ridiculous pricing? It's not like you are selling high and buying high. You didn't sell anything to gain a profit. Why so eager to make a loss? If you'd listen to logic you'll get more logical prices from sellers.

Sellers: Look at the statistics and go figure.

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